Air Canada has further diversified its long-haul widebody fleet with the addition of another cockpit type, the Airbus A350-1000, ordering eight aircraft, with another eight options. Deliveries will begin in 2030.
The Engine Cowl spoke to John Strickland, the founder of JLS Consulting, an independent aviation consultancy, and Patrick Baudis, the President of Ascendium Aero Advisory and the Co-Founder of Airline Factory, and the former Vice President of Marketing at Airbus Americas and the Head of Marketing at Bombardier, to understand the potential impact of Air Canada’s A350-1000 order.
Replacing 777-300ERs?
With deliveries beginning in the second half of 2030, Air Canada will look to replace some of its aging larger widebodies, namely the Boeing 777-200LR or 777-300ERs. Strickland, speaking with The Engine Cowl, said that the Canadian airline is obviously diversifying its long-haul fleet with the introduction of the A321XLR and, now, the A350-1000.
“The range, capacity, and efficiency of the A350-1000 will allow Air Canada to develop more long-haul routes and replace some of the earlier-generation Boeing 777 aircraft.”
Meanwhile, Baudis told The Engine Cowl that the A350-1000 has one advantage over its main competitor, the 777X aircraft family: it is already in service.
“It is also smaller, as Air Canada might not need more than 400 seats and is less costly. So all in all, less risk.”
Baudis added that from an outsider’s point of view, the A350-1000 will replace the 777-300ERs. However, the former Airbus Americas and Bombardier executive questioned why Air Canada did not commit to more A350-1000s “to match and even surpass the 777-300ER fleet size.”
“Why not replace the whole 777-300ER fleet then? I think part of the answer lies in its network served by the 777-300ERs,” Baudis continued. “It could be that Air Canada wants to keep some 777-300ERs for some leisure destinations as a 777-200 replacement and an upgauge from the A330-300, which is a possibility.”
Baudis mused that since the carrier is introducing a new aircraft type, it most likely wants to start small and build up the fleet, “and escalation factors are killing prices since the longer you wait, the more you will pay.”
“In such circumstances, it is better to anticipate and buy small batches of planes more often as opposed to a large batch spreading on a long period of time. It could also mean that some additional aircraft will come from lessors. Or, if there is a crisis coming in the next five to seven years, which is statistically highly likely, you could see a whole different delivery landscape, and it could be a good time to re-order.”
Air Canada could use the A350-1000s to launch new routes, and as Strickland pointed out, the type could support new connections to Asia, “given Canada’s large Asian diasporas, and for which long range and efficiency are important.”
However, Baudis said that the airline would need more aircraft, even if it exercises its options for eight additional A350-1000s.
“The 777-300ERs are about 15 years old on average, and in five years, they will be due for replacement. There will not be enough A350-1000s coming to replace the 777-300ER fleet entirely.”
(Air Canada currently has 19 777-300ERs in its fleet, per planespotters.net.)
In addition to having slightly more range, the A350-1000 is much more fuel efficient, “and offers a few more seats at equal comfort,” which is always a good thing from a passenger’s perspective, according to Baudis.
Air Canada’s 777-200LR problem
Baudis noted that replacing the 777-200LR will not be an easy task for the Canadian carrier. The ultra-long-range aircraft used to fly routes such as Toronto Pearson International Airport (YYZ) or Vancouver International Airport (YVR) to Sydney Airport (SYD) could be replaced by the A350-1000. But then, Air Canada would have to make compromises and possibly “de-densify” its A350-1000s.
The Canadian carrier has six 777-200LRs, which are, on average, 18.3 years old.
Baudis questioned whether the Canadian carrier might be drawing inspiration from Delta Air Lines’ fleet strategy, but noted that the “markets are different.” He stated that the 787 fleet is most likely replacing the A330-300s, with Air Canada using the 787-8 as the “route opener, network fragmenter for Europe,” while the 787-9s are the core replacement. The 787-10 aircraft, which Air Canada will introduce into service later in 2026 and initially base at YYZ, “is the upgauge solution.”
“In this context, the A350-1000 is the 777-300ER replacement on routes that will need more range or more seats than the 787-10,” Baudis continued.
“If traffic growth supports it, 10 years from now, we could then see a shift of 787-9 from Asia to transatlantic routes, replaced by the A350-1000. Sounds like what Delta Air Lines did. We just have to wait 10 years to know!”
