Europe’s three network carrier groups are in flux. Subject to regulatory approval, Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM will take majority stakes in ITA Airways and SAS, respectively, while both have submitted bids for TAP Air Portugal.

What will happen to the relative size of the three groups after this round of consolidation?

Among the three groups, Lufthansa Group is currently the largest in terms of both passenger numbers and revenue (although IAG is larger in terms of available seat kilometers).

While IAG and Air France-KLM are close in terms of total revenue, Air France-KLM is currently the smallest by passenger numbers.

Following the absorption of ITA Airways, Lufthansa Group will remain the leader in terms of passenger volume.  Meanwhile, Air France-KLM will overtake IAG after acquiring SAS.

Given only a minority stake is for sale in TAP Air Portugal, the Portuguese airline is unlikely to be fully consolidated into the results of either bidder.

However, for argument’s sake, if Air France-KLM were to be the successful suitor, this would largely close the gap between it and Lufthansa Group. Conversely, if Lufthansa Group were to be selected, this would reinforce its lead in passenger volume.

Whatever happens with TAP Air Portugal, IAG will fall to the #3 position in terms of passenger volume.

Passengers ≠ Profit

Delivering passenger volume is one thing; profitability is another.

Irrespective of size, IAG continues to deliver a substantially higher margin than its peers. In 2025, IAG generated approximately €1 billion more operating profit than Lufthansa Group and Air France-KLM combined.

Either way, Ryanair will remain Europe's volume leader

Even after this round of consolidation, none of the three groups comes close to Ryanair on volume.

The low-cost leader carried 208 million passengers in FY26, nearly 50% more than Lufthansa Group and more than double Air France-KLM.

Notes: This analysis is based on 2025 passenger numbers and does not account for capacity changes in 2026.  

Photo credit: 4300streetcar via Wikimedia Commons

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