JetBlue has updated its Q1 2026 guidance, disclosing that while its unit revenues are expected to be above the previous estimates, unit costs, excluding fuel, have been much higher due to “two major winter weather events in January and February.”
In an update on March 17, 2026, JetBlue said that in Q1 2026, demand for travel has improved over previous expectations, “helping to partially offset additional expenses realized from operational disruptions and rising fuel costs.”
Similar to Frontier Airlines, JetBlue has seen travel demand strengthen during peak and off-peak periods across its network, with both premium and core cabin performance improving in Q1.
As a result, JetBlue’s unit revenue is expected to improve by between 5% and 7% year-on-year (YoY). Its previous guidance indicated that revenue per available seat mile (RASM) would be flat or increase by up to 4% relative to Q1 2025.
However, it has experienced two major winter storms in Q1 2026, reducing capacity, measured in ASMs, by around 3.5% compared to previous expectations and driving up unit costs, excluding fuel, by “a similar amount.”
Now, JetBlue estimated that its unit costs without fuel will be between 6.5% and 7.5% higher YoY. The previous guidance had predicted that cost per ASM, excluding fuel (CASM-ex), would rise from 3.5% to 5.5%.
“Without the impact of these events, the midpoint of first quarter unit revenue guidance would have improved by two points and the midpoint of first quarter CASM ex-fuel guidance would have improved by one point versus previous guidance.”
In addition, the average fuel price has risen significantly due to the conflict in Iran. Compared to the previous estimate of $2.27 to $2.42, the average jet fuel price in Q1 is now expected to be between $3.01 and $3.06, an increase of 26% at the upper range of the guidance.
Rytis Beresnevicius
